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What is the Real Unemployment Number?

2/26/2012

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We are going on a journey over a couple of blogs, looking at the unemployment situation. Today I want to try to understand the way the  federal government comes up with it’s monthly number, and how that relates to  the economic recovery.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is responsible for calculating and reporting the month unemployment number. If you are like me,  you basically assume that the unemployment number is calculated by taking all  the adults in the US and divide that by the number of those adults not working. Presto, you have the unemployment number. 

That’s not how it’s done. I spent a couple of hours on BLS’s website looking at spreadsheets, charts, and definition of terms. What I found is that my assumptions on each of the two variables in the unemployment equation are wrong. Let’s start with my bottom number; total adults in the
US.

Officially, the BLS calls it the “Civilian Labor Force” The Civilian Labor Force is “All persons in the civilian noninstitutional population classified as either employed or unemployed.” While that sound  innocuous enough, it is filled with things you wouldn’t even think of. 
 
First, let’s deal with the benign ones; the issues that make sense. Since it is “civilian” it excludes all military personnel from the population. That could make a difference when comparing apples to apples. With  wars ending and soldiers coming back home, you could be classifying a lot more people as civilian. But as it turns out, the military levels are about the same now as compared to when Obama took office. That is what I am interested in. I want to know if real unemployment is better or worse in the last three years.

The Civilian Labor Force also excludes retired persons, students, and those taking care of children or other family members. That sounds reasonable to me. Retirees, kids in school, and stay at home Moms (who I am sure would argue they “work” for a living) should not be part of the
potential labor force. They are either already working or not eligible to work.

Next is the word “noninstitutional”. That means those not in jail and not in a mental facility. OK, I can buy that. You don’t want to include those incapable of seeking work in an unemployment number. I couldn’t find a lot of information to compare Jan 2009 (when Obama took office) to now; so I will assume that they are about the same as well.

But that leaves us with the final part of the definition; “classified as either employed or unemployed” Well, duh!  What else is there?  As it turns out, in addition to retirees, and such, (that I mentioned above), there are those who are classified as “Marginally Attached Workers.” What the hell is that, you ask?

A Marginally Attached Worker is “Persons not in the labor force who want and are available for work, and who have looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months (or since the end of their last job if they held one within the past 12 months), but were not counted as unemployed

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King Obama and Contraceptives

2/19/2012

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I genuinely can not believe the heights this contraception issue has attained. It’s mind boggling to me how those on the left completely misunderstand, misstate, or out right lie about the positions the conservatives are taking. I have experienced numerous cartoons, Facebook postings, comments, and talk show programs on this subject. This, in a nutshell is the position of those on the liberal left.

“Republicans want women pregnant and have no choice but to become so at the whim of an evil male. They must not be allowed to have contraceptives”

I know it seems like I am setting up a straw man to tear down, but I’m not building this scarecrow. The left has the wagon full of straw.

Conservatives are against Obama’s contraception mandate from two basic points of view; one from the social conservatives and one from the economic/constitutional conservatives.

The social conservatives generally belief that life begins at conception. I don’t completely agree with this, but there is a very real possibility that they are right. Even if I was sure these people were wrong, is that belief so morally repugnant a point of view to garner all the hatred I have seen? These conservatives are saying because we belief that life begins at conception, it is wrong to try to prevent life from occurring. I part company here, with my more religious counterparts. If I don’t want to have children, I should be free to prevent that from happening with any way I feel comfortable with. Contraceptives fit that bill with me, and most Americans. 
 
But we come together again, when the religious right simply states that they will not violate their core beliefs by providing the means to prevent life from occurring. Simply, they won’t pay for, or use an insurance company who will do so in their name.

Those Catholics, as an example, are in no way denying anyone access to contraceptives. If you want contraceptives, you are perfectly free to go get them.  It costs in the neighborhood of $20 per month, without insurance. No one is stopping you. 

Spare me the lectures on what $20 will buy a poor family. I see poor families all over my city. They have cell phones, cars, flat screen TVs, most smoke and drink, and otherwise waste that much money in a week, let alone a month.  This is not an economic issue for the poor. This is an economic issue for the left, who want to cloak their bribery of the uniformed or unintelligent, in morality. They claim that they are just helping people who are being shackled by the religious right.

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A Right? That's not Right.

2/11/2012

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The Democratic National Committee has released a video of President Obama’s recent compromise requiring health insurers to provide birth control, free of charge. It would be required even if the organization subsidizing that insurance has an objection to contraceptives on moral grounds. I’m only going to comment on that issue by saying the government has no duty, obligation, or authority to require this. It is a bastardization of the constitution that we continue to travel on this road, in which government misuses the commerce clause.

No, what really got me annoyed were the DNC’s words that accompanied Obama’s announcement. I quote;

 “President Obama has set a standard that every woman has a right to contraception coverage at no additional cost—and he's done it in a way that respects religious freedoms. Republicans want to take that right away."

“..has a right to contraception coverage”? In the words of the younger generation;  WTF?!

This is not a right.

A right is life. You were born; your life is yours to do with how you want. You have a right to your
property. You earn your money from your employer. It is your right to keep that. You have the right of liberty. You can not be imprisoned or enslaved against your will. You have the right to speak your mind, and not have the government throw you in jail.  These are rights, because to have them requires nothing of anyone else. They are god-given and stand alone.

You do not have the “right” to free healthcare. That “right” requires the medical professionals to
work for free, providing you with their skills and services. These professionals spent much in time and treasure to acquire those skills. Don’t they have a right to be paid for their labor? Don’t they have a right to their intellectual property?

Of course they do. That is why the practical way to insure this “right”, is for someone else, like me, to be made to give my money to the medical professionals, on your behalf.  That sounds like it infringes on my rights of property. Yes, our elected officials have made their decrees or passed a law making the taking of my money legal. But that does not alter the fact that your “right” to free healthcare infringes on my real right of property. 

That is the difference. A right is not truly a right if it infringes on someone else. Free contraception should not even be discussed with the term “right” attached to it. I am not
anti-contraception. This is the method my wife and I used to manage the amount of children we could afford to support. And, yes, my employer offered a prescription plan that paid for part of it. 
 
“But, what if it didn’t, Mr. Smarty-pants?” Then I would have made a decision that was in the best
interest of my family, and held with my own core beliefs. I might have paid full price for them out of my pocket. I might have switched employers. What I would not even have considered, is thinking my neighbors should pay for it, least of all, unwillingly.

It would be the same as asking them to pay for my groceries, or more accurately for my ice cream dessert. What if I claim I have a “right” to ice cream? 

“I have a right to Ice Cream. It is delicious, has loads of calcium and other nutrients, and is calorie dense, insuring I will not starve to death. By God, it’s for me and my wife’s health. This is a women’s health issue. So my wife has a right to ice cream. Just pass a law so the insurance company has to cover free ice cream”

Of course that is absurd. But, so is the claim that contraception is also a right, using the same
argument.

Rights also come with responsibilities. You can not use your right of free speech to stir up a riot.
You can not yell “Fire!” in a public theater. You can not use your property in such a way as to deny the use of someone else’s property, to them. You can not use your life to steal from other people. If you do, your right to liberty will be suspended for a period of time. These are universally recognized, and laws to protect your true rights have been enacted.  
 
You can not claim, if the word is to have any meaning, that something is a right, if it usurps someone else’s rights. Doing so is both immoral and against our constitution. Words have meanings and it is worth reminding ourselves of them. If, to pay for your contraceptives, I decide to give you my money; that is called charity. If you take it from me; that is called theft. If you elect a politician who will use his power to take my money; it is called a tax, and is legal. But it isn’t a
right, nor is it right.

This November, you  get to decide what is right and what is a right. Choose wisely. Your real rights are the line.
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Do Not Muck it Up

2/5/2012

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On Friday the Labor Department announced that the national unemployment rate dropped to 8.3%. I don’t want to be a killjoy, but while it is encouraging that the trend is in the right direction, it is still well above 8%. The goal is to get into the fives; that is the territory where the vast majority of those who want to find a job are working. So, while there is room for optimism, we are far from out of the woods.

But, what disturbed me most about this report was our President’s reaction. He used it as excuse to extol Congress to pass the payroll tax cut and to 

“..not slow down the recovery we are on. Do not muck it up.”

At the risk of being labeled a racist; this is the most egregious case of the pot calling the kettle black I have heard on this subject.

“Do not muck it up”. 

Boeing decides to build a manufacturing plant in right-to-work state, South Carolina. The unions representing the workers in Washington state, throw a hissy fit. They file a complaint with the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB), claiming that Boeing’s decision on where to build is retaliation for the labor strikes called in the Seattle plants. Since it is retaliation, they claim, that it is illegal under the Wagner Act of 1935. Does the NLRB, lead by recent Obama appointees, laugh and tell the unions they have no power to tell a company where they can build their plants? No, it takes the case and eventually blackmails Boeing into signing a new labor agreement with the machinist union in Seattle. This cost Boeing millions in related costs. How likely are they, or another big company, going to be to build a plant in the US, in this kind of
environment?

“Do not muck it up.”

 President Obama championed, and his fellow Democrats rammed a controversial, ineffective,
and financially burdensome healthcare bill, ObamaCare, down the throats of the American people. Businesses everywhere are trying to figure out how it will affect them. But, based on the amended costs of health insurance premiums, since the bill was passed; it is universally agreed that healthcare and healthcare insurance will be more expensive. Businesses are now forced to pay for insurance that will cover 25 year old “children’. Businesses respond by not hiring new people; focusing instead on improving productivity and approving more overtime.

“Do not muck it up.”

Canada desperately wants to build a north-south pipeline to send petroleum products originating from the oil sands in Alberta to our refineries along the Gulf Coast. The Keystone XL pipeline would create 20,000 jobs almost right away and hundreds of thousands of oil related jobs in the coming years. Obama at first gave his approval, and I gave him credit for that. But true to form he did the political calculus and put his re-

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